Return to the office (Centre for Cities report)

The Centre for Cities (www.centreforcities.org) have just published a comprehensive research document on the 'Return to the office' post COVID-19 and how London compares to other major International cities, and highlights the challenges this may pose for the London and UK economy.

Below we pick out our main key takeaways from the report:

• The return to the office in central London has been slowing down

In June 2024, full-time central London office workers were spending 2.7 days per week in the office – half a day longer than a year prior (2.2 days in April 2023).9 This is down from 3.9 days on average in January 2020. But the return to the office has slowed down since the pandemic.

• There has been no permanent shift to fully remote working

Days in the office being 30 per cent down on pre-pandemic levels has been driven by fulltime office workers pre-Covid reducing numbers of days in the office post-Covid, rather than a wholesale shift to fully remote working.

• Older workers, in-commuters, and public sector workers spend less time in the office

Within these averages, different worker demographics are coming in different amounts. Younger workers are in the office more than their older counterparts. 18- to 24-yearolds are in most, at 3.1 days on average, declining to just 2.5 days for 35- to 44-year-olds.This trend rebounds slightly up to 2.7 days for those 55 and over. This runs against narrative that reluctance to return to the office is driven by younger workers.

Those commuting in from the Home Counties have not returned to the office over the past year. There is a big difference in office attendance between those living within versus outside Greater London – 2.9 versus 2.1 days per week on average.

Government workers’ office attendance lags behind the private sector. They come in just 2.2 days per week, below the 2.6-day private sector average.

• The return to the office is a global trend with Paris at the forefront

London has the second lowest office attendance of any of the six global cities surveyed. Paris comes out on top, with 3.5 days spent in the office. Even in central New York, the centre of many stories about a reluctance to return to the workplace, employees reported that they go to the office 3.1 days per week. Only Toronto had lower office attendance, coming in just below London’s 2.7 days.

• Fully remote working hasn’t persisted because employers and employees recognise the benefits to in-person working
  
  The shift back to the office from fully remote working has resulted from both employers and employees increasingly understanding the value of being in the office. 95 per cent of workers surveyed (across all cities) said there were benefits to being in the office, with the benefits of collaboration between and building relationships with colleagues being the most widely recognised.
  
  
• Extensive home working could pose a long-term challenge to London and the UK economy

There is plenty of evidence that high-skilled firms and workers derive productivity benefits from being located close to one another, consistent with agglomeration theory. For workers in city centres, this is particularly through learning (or ‘knowledge spillovers’) – dense environments and face-to-face contact leading to greater transfers of information, knowledge and skills. The responses discussed above show this is something both employees and employers recognise. Less frequent face-to-face interaction between
employees in central London would put the city at a productivity disadvantage relative to other global cities.

And it may be something that harms younger workers in particular. Those aged under 35 are more likely to come into the office than older workers. This is because younger workers tend to think they are most productive in the office, while older workers are less likely to perceive decision-making benefits of office working, valuing the flexibility of home working more. Then there is the issue of skills: early-career workers’ development may suffer if their senior colleagues’ corner offices are empty.