Back in October 2021, we wrote about the TW&T Divide. The office division between those working a full week in the office and those working Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday in the office and Monday and Friday at home.
Then, we were in the midst of the worst pandemic in living memory. Fifteen months on, when everything is supposedly back to normal - albeit having blitzed through three prime ministers, two monarchs and a winter World Cup - what has changed? Are we back to normal? Can anyone remember what normal was? Who are the winners and the losers of the hybrid working model?
Let’s find out.
Cast your mind back to late 2019. We were in the office five days a week, going for post-work drinks on a Friday night and getting the last train home, packed with others, just like you. A little worse for wear, gagging for something greasy and fried before crashing into bed and waking up late on Saturday morning just in time for the Food Heaven or Food Hell slot on Saturday Kitchen.
Mondays were bleary-eyed experiences after a full-on weekend and the week would only kick-start post-lunch after a skipful of coffee and keeping out the boss’s way for a few hours while you woke up properly.
That was what used to happen.
It doesn’t anymore.
More and more of us are working from home on Mondays and Fridays according to analysts PlaceMake.io and Visitor Insights.
They analysed anonymised mobile phone data from over 500 British high streets between 2019 and 2022 and the results confirmed what inner city retailers and the hospitality industry have noticed.
The data shows that major city centres were busy on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays and on Mondays and Fridays there was increased activity in suburban areas and local town centres. This suggests that more people were working from home on those days.
According to Mark Allan, CEO of LandSec, ‘we’re not going back to how things were pre-Covid. We certainly believe there are going to be fewer people in offices for the longer term and we are planning accordingly.’
In the City of London for example, Monday activity was at 50% of the level of the middle three days and Fridays were almost as quiet as the weekend.
Talking about the shift to a more hybrid working week, Cevat Giray Aksoy, an economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said in October in the FT that working from home, even two days a week, ‘presents challenges for dense urban centres that are organised to support a large volume of inward commuters and a high concentration of commercial activity.’
Not surprisingly according to CBRE, empty central London office space has doubled in the last three years and David Inskip, head of EMEA research at CBRE Investment Management suggests that the basic office set-up may not be enough anymore.
‘It has to be a high quality built environment that draws you in.’ And as the major city centres up and down the UK have seen sharp declines in footfall and, crucially, money spent in retail and hospitality, the boot is on the other foot as far as local towns and suburbs are concerned.
It was only a few short years ago we were predicting the demise of the local high street but it appears that was slightly premature. It’s certainly true that no-one could have imagined the chaos that Covid caused but because of it, more people are working from home at least part of the week.
The upshot is that people are rediscovering their local area. They are realising that they don’t need to head into major towns and cities to get what they need.
One example is the Merseyside town of Kirkby, around nine miles from Liverpool city centre. The town has seen a 160% increase in footfall, helped in part from a regeneration project that has seen a new supermarket open in the town centre. Other towns have followed suit.
Smaller suburban town centres are improving their facilities including offices, shops and residential property and what town planners refer to as a ‘15-Minute City’ - places where everything is within walking distance - have been given a new lease of life.
Chlump Chatkupt, the founder of PlaceMake.io, one of the companies that did the research, said, ‘The places that have thrived have a more balanced, diverse mix of office, residential and retail.’
Interestingly, another winner in the ‘working from home on Mondays and Fridays instead of all week’ match-up are Britain’s seaside towns. Traditionally the domain of the retired, they have attracted a younger population in the last few years.
‘People can live further away now’, said Adam Sweet, a structural engineer who moved to the town of Budleigh Salterton in Devon with his young family. Another emigre to the seaside is Mark Godfrey, a country house manager who goes into the office twice a week. ‘As soon as I finish work it takes me seven minutes to get to the sea for a swim.’
Enough said.
Thursday is the new Friday and Tuesday is the new Monday but we wish Saturday and Sunday would last twice as long.